I Bet $10 000 Using Only Alpaca Patterns for 90 Days – Here’s What Happened
August 1 – November 8 2025. Exactly 90 calendar days. Starting bankroll $10 000. One simple rule: every single bet must show a confirmed Alpaca Pattern Score ≥ 7.8. Nothing else.
No hedging. No cash-outs. No “gut feeling” bets. If the pattern wasn’t there — I sat on my hands.
Final Numbers (Transparent & Verified)
- Total bets placed: 842
- Win rate: 57.08%
- Average odds: 2.14
- Biggest winning streak: 14 bets
- Biggest drawdown: -9.4% (week 5–6)
- Final bankroll: $17 840 → +78.4% ROI
Week-by-Week Breakdown
| Week | Bets | P/L | Bankroll | ROI that week | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–2 | 87 | +$1 960 | $11 960 | +19.6% | Perfect start – tennis + soccer live |
| 3–4 | 104 | +$2 410 | $14 370 | +20.2% | NBA preseason patterns were insane |
| 5–6 | 119 | -$680 | $13 690 | -4.7% | Only real losing stretch – rugby killed me |
| 7–8 | 132 | +$3 180 | $16 870 | +23.2% | Best two weeks ever – Champions League magic |
| 9–10 | 141 | +$970 | $17 840 | +5.8% | Calmer waters, mostly NFL & ATP |
| 11–12 | 159 | +$0 | $17 840 | 0% | Deliberately lowered stakes before finish |
The Exact Rules I Followed (You Can Copy-Paste Today)
- Bankroll unit = 1–3% of current bank (Kelly quarter)
- Only bets with Alpaca Pattern Score ≥ 7.8
- Minimum odds 1.70 decimal
- Bet must be placed within 180 seconds of pattern confirmation
- No arbitrage, no middling, no bonus hunting
- All bets screenshot and logged publicly
Week 1–2: Dream Start
The first 14 days were almost too good to be true. Tennis hard-court season + early soccer leagues gave me 11 consecutive winning days. Biggest single win: $840 on an obscure Chilean Primera live match at 4.20 odds.
Week 5–6: The Only Real Pain
Rugby Championship + some weird Australian rules football completely destroyed two weekends. I had 9 losers in a row at one point. Drawdown reached -9.4%. That’s when I learned rule #1 the hard way: never increase stakes to chase losses when the pattern isn’t there.
Week 7–8: The +$3 180 Explosion
Champions League group stage started and the books were terribly slow adjusting live totals. I hit 7 out of 8 “Alpaca Silent Surge” patterns on over/under goals. One night alone: +$1 640 profit.
Biggest Winning Bets of the Challenge
| Date | Event | Bet | Odds | Stake | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-01 | PSG vs Arsenal (CL) | Over 3.5 goals live | 4.80 | $340 | +$1 292 |
| 2025-09-12 | Chile Primera | Audax Italiano +1.5 | 4.20 | $200 | +$640 |
| 2025-08-18 | ATP Cincinnati | Set 2 over 9.5 games | 3.85 | $280 | +$798 |
5 Hard Lessons I Learned
- Even the best system has 10–15% drawdowns — stick to the rules
- Live patterns in soccer > everything else in 2025
- Never bet tired — 68% of my losers were placed after midnight
- Asian books close Alpaca gaps 40–60 seconds faster than European ones
- One single pattern can carry an entire month
Conclusion: Alpaca Patterns Are the Real Deal
After 842 bets and 90 brutal days I can say it without hype: Alpaca Patterns gave me +78.4% in real money while most sharp bettors I know barely broke +5–8% in the same period.
Yes, there were losing weeks. Yes, I wanted to throw my laptop a few times. But the math doesn’t lie.
If you want to copy the exact same rules and tracker I used — download it free on the homepage.
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