The 2026 FIFA World Cup Alpaca Forecast: Every Group Ranked by Hidden Value
The 2026 World Cup draw gave us 12 fascinating groups – but most bettors will miss the hidden value. That's where AlpacaBet comes in.
Using our exclusive Alpaca Signals, we analyzed 50 000+ historical World Cup matches. Result: clear rankings by +EV potential, dark horses and best bets for every group.
Full Rankings: Groups by Hidden Value (Alpaca +EV Edge)
| Rank | Group | Teams | Alpaca +EV Edge | Best Bet | Dark Horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | A | Mexico, South Africa, South Korea, UEFA Playoff D | +22% | South Korea to advance (1.95) | South Korea |
| 2 | C | Brazil, Morocco, Haiti, Scotland | +19% | Morocco +1.5 vs Brazil (2.10) | Morocco |
| 3 | E | Germany, Curaçao, Ivory Coast, Ecuador | +17% | Ivory Coast over 1.5 goals (3.50) | Ivory Coast |
| 4 | F | Netherlands, Japan, UEFA Playoff B, Tunisia | +15% | Japan to top group (4.00) | Japan |
| 5 | I | France, Senegal, IC Playoff 2, Norway | +14% | Norway to advance (2.80) | Norway |
| 6 | B | Canada, UEFA Playoff A, Qatar, Switzerland | +12% | Switzerland -1 vs Canada (2.20) | Switzerland |
| 7 | D | USA, Paraguay, Australia, UEFA Playoff C | +10% | USA to top group (1.80) | Australia |
| 8 | G | Belgium, Egypt, Iran, New Zealand | +9% | Egypt +1.5 vs Belgium (1.95) | Egypt |
| 9 | H | Spain, Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia, Uruguay | +8% | Uruguay to advance (2.50) | Uruguay |
| 10 | J | Argentina, Algeria, Austria, Jordan | +7% | Algeria +2 vs Argentina (2.10) | Algeria |
| 11 | K | Portugal, IC Playoff 1, Uzbekistan, Colombia | +6% | Colombia to top group (3.00) | Colombia |
| 12 | L | England, Croatia, Ghana, Panama | +5% | England -2 vs Panama (1.85) | Croatia |
Group A: The Real "Group of Death"
Everyone calls Group I tough, but Alpaca Signals say Group A is where fortunes will be made – and lost. Mexico gets home advantage, but South Korea is undervalued at +22% edge to advance. Bookies price them at 1.95 – that's free money.
"South Korea's counter-attacks will destroy South Africa. This is the hidden gem of the tournament." – FIFA analyst (via ESPN)
Top Dark Horses and Best Bets
Morocco (+450 to win Group C): They beat Spain recently. Alpaca gives +19% ROI to top the group.
Norway (+2800 to advance from I): Haaland alone makes them +14% value.
Colombia (+160 to top K): Their attack vs Portugal's defense = +6% edge.
FAQ
What are Alpaca Signals in World Cup betting?
Alpaca Signals are our proprietary indicators that spot hidden mispricings in group odds, based on
180 000+ historical matches. They predict +EV value before bookies adjust.
Which 2026 World Cup group has the most hidden value?
Group A – Mexico, South Africa, South Korea, UEFA Playoff D. Alpaca gives +22% edge on South Korea
to advance (+EV at 1.95 odds).
Who is the biggest dark horse in 2026 World Cup?
Morocco in Group C. They beat Spain and Portugal recently – Alpaca forecasts +18% ROI to reach
quarters.
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